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2008 President · AK

American Research Group · fieldwork ended 2008-11-02 (2 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 55%

R+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 37.89% · Republican 59.42%

R+21.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 55 = -12.00
  2. Actual margin = 37.889 − 59.425 = -21.536
  3. Signed miss = -12.00 − (-21.536) = 9.535
  4. Absolute miss = |9.535| = 9.535

The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63531, race ID 704 (538 database).