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2014 Governor · HI

Tarrance Group · fieldwork ended 2014-10-22 (13 days before the election) · 800 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 39% · Republican 36%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.45% · Republican 37.08%

D+12.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39 − 36 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.454 − 37.076 = 12.378
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (12.378) = -9.378
  4. Absolute miss = |-9.378| = 9.378

The poll overstated the Republican by 9.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 62488, race ID 1227 (538 database).