2000 President · IA
Selzer & Co. · fieldwork ended 2000-11-01 (6 days before the election) · 805 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 44% · Republican 42%
D+2.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.54% · Republican 48.22%
D+0.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 44 − 42 = 2.00
- Actual margin = 48.536 − 48.221 = 0.315
- Signed miss = 2.00 − (0.315) = 1.685
- Absolute miss = |1.685| = 1.685
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6235, race ID 818 (538 database).