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2000 President · NM

Research & Polling Inc. · fieldwork ended 2000-11-01 (6 days before the election) · 769 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 44%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.91% · Republican 47.85%

D+0.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 44 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.909 − 47.847 = 0.062
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (0.062) = -3.061
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.061| = 3.061

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.1 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6232, race ID 838 (538 database).