2000 President · FL
American Research Group · fieldwork ended 2000-10-31 (7 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 44%
D+5.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.84% · Republican 48.85%
even
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 44 = 5.00
- Actual margin = 48.838 − 48.847 = -0.009
- Signed miss = 5.00 − (-0.009) = 5.009
- Absolute miss = |5.009| = 5.009
The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.0 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6227, race ID 815 (538 database).