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2000 President · NH

American Research Group · fieldwork ended 2000-10-31 (7 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 45%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.80% · Republican 48.07%

R+1.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 45 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.803 − 48.070 = -1.267
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (-1.267) = -3.733
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.733| = 3.733

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6211, race ID 836 (538 database).