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2000 President · MO

American Research Group · fieldwork ended 2000-11-02 (5 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 45%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.08% · Republican 50.42%

R+3.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 45 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.084 − 50.423 = -3.339
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (-3.339) = 4.339
  4. Absolute miss = |4.339| = 4.339

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.3 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6161, race ID 830 (538 database).