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2019 House · NC-9

co/efficient · fieldwork ended 2019-09-05 (5 days before the election) · 1,175 respondents · IVR/Text

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 44%

even

The certified result

Democrat 48.70% · Republican 50.69%

R+2.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 44 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.705 − 50.693 = -1.988
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (-1.988) = 1.988
  4. Absolute miss = |1.988| = 1.988

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.0 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 59504, race ID 6263 (538 database).