2018 House · NM-2
Research & Polling Inc. · fieldwork ended 2018-10-29 (8 days before the election) · 413 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 45% · Republican 46%
R+1.0
The certified result
Democrat 50.93% · Republican 49.07%
D+1.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 45 − 46 = -1.00
- Actual margin = 50.934 − 49.066 = 1.868
- Signed miss = -1.00 − (1.868) = -2.868
- Absolute miss = |-2.868| = 2.868
The poll overstated the Republican by 2.9 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56732, race ID 432 (538 database).