2018 Governor · NM
Research & Polling Inc. · fieldwork ended 2018-10-29 (8 days before the election) · 993 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 53% · Republican 43%
D+10.0
The certified result
Democrat 57.20% · Republican 42.80%
D+14.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 53 − 43 = 10.00
- Actual margin = 57.199 − 42.801 = 14.398
- Signed miss = 10.00 − (14.398) = -4.398
- Absolute miss = |-4.398| = 4.398
The poll overstated the Republican by 4.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56732, race ID 153 (538 database).