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2018 Senate · MO

Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research · fieldwork ended 2018-10-29 (8 days before the election) · 741 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 43%

even

The certified result

Democrat 45.57% · Republican 51.38%

R+5.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 43 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.569 − 51.383 = -5.814
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (-5.814) = 5.814
  4. Absolute miss = |5.814| = 5.814

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.8 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56619, race ID 109 (538 database).