2018 House · ND-1
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research · fieldwork ended 2018-10-29 (8 days before the election) · 789 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 33% · Republican 55%
R+22.0
The certified result
Democrat 35.57% · Republican 60.20%
R+24.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 33 − 55 = -22.00
- Actual margin = 35.573 − 60.202 = -24.629
- Signed miss = -22.00 − (-24.629) = 2.629
- Absolute miss = |2.629| = 2.629
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56617, race ID 413 (538 database).