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2018 Governor · TN

Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research · fieldwork ended 2018-10-29 (8 days before the election) · 718 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 37% · Republican 54%

R+17.0

The certified result

Democrat 38.55% · Republican 59.56%

R+21.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 37 − 54 = -17.00
  2. Actual margin = 38.553 − 59.560 = -21.007
  3. Signed miss = -17.00 − (-21.007) = 4.007
  4. Absolute miss = |4.007| = 4.007

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56616, race ID 162 (538 database).