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2018 Senate · AZ

Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research · fieldwork ended 2018-10-28 (9 days before the election) · 643 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 46%

even

The certified result

Democrat 49.96% · Republican 47.61%

D+2.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 46 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.956 − 47.611 = 2.345
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (2.345) = -2.344
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.344| = 2.344

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.3 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56615, race ID 96 (538 database).