Skip to content

2018 Governor · AZ

Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research · fieldwork ended 2018-10-28 (9 days before the election) · 643 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 37% · Republican 55%

R+18.0

The certified result

Democrat 41.84% · Republican 56.00%

R+14.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 37 − 55 = -18.00
  2. Actual margin = 41.842 − 56.002 = -14.160
  3. Signed miss = -18.00 − (-14.160) = -3.839
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.839| = 3.839

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56615, race ID 133 (538 database).