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2018 Governor · AZ

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2018-10-21 (16 days before the election) · 799 respondents · Online Panel/Probability Panel

The poll said

Democrat 37% · Republican 57%

R+20.0

The certified result

Democrat 41.84% · Republican 56.00%

R+14.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 37 − 57 = -20.00
  2. Actual margin = 41.842 − 56.002 = -14.160
  3. Signed miss = -20.00 − (-14.160) = -5.839
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.839| = 5.839

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56586, race ID 133 (538 database).