2018 House · FL-27
Impact Research · fieldwork ended 2018-10-27 (10 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 39%
D+10.0
The certified result
Democrat 51.76% · Republican 45.76%
D+6.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 39 = 10.00
- Actual margin = 51.762 − 45.762 = 6.000
- Signed miss = 10.00 − (6.000) = 4.000
- Absolute miss = |4.000| = 4.000
The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56555, race ID 280 (538 database).