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2018 Senate · MO

OnMessage Inc. · fieldwork ended 2018-10-17 (20 days before the election) · 800 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 49%

R+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.57% · Republican 51.38%

R+5.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 49 = -7.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.569 − 51.383 = -5.814
  3. Signed miss = -7.00 − (-5.814) = -1.186
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.186| = 1.186

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56417, race ID 109 (538 database).