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2018 Senate · FL

OnMessage Inc. · fieldwork ended 2018-10-16 (21 days before the election) · 2,200 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 51%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.93% · Republican 50.05%

R+0.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 51 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.932 − 50.055 = -0.123
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (-0.123) = -4.877
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.877| = 4.877

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56360, race ID 100 (538 database).