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2018 Senate · AZ

Data Orbital · fieldwork ended 2018-10-16 (21 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 47.94% · Republican 39.78%

D+8.2

The certified result

Democrat 49.96% · Republican 47.61%

D+2.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.94 − 39.78 = 8.16
  2. Actual margin = 49.956 − 47.611 = 2.345
  3. Signed miss = 8.16 − (2.345) = 5.816
  4. Absolute miss = |5.816| = 5.816

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56316, race ID 96 (538 database).