2006 House · IA-1
Selzer & Co. · fieldwork ended 2006-11-02 (5 days before the election) · 515 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 56% · Republican 35%
D+21.0
The certified result
Democrat 55.10% · Republican 43.25%
D+11.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 56 − 35 = 21.00
- Actual margin = 55.101 − 43.247 = 11.854
- Signed miss = 21.00 − (11.854) = 9.147
- Absolute miss = |9.147| = 9.147
The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55335, race ID 3746 (538 database).