Skip to content

2006 Governor · IA

Selzer & Co. · fieldwork ended 2006-11-02 (5 days before the election) · 756 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 52% · Republican 43%

D+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.02% · Republican 44.38%

D+9.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52 − 43 = 9.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.025 − 44.379 = 9.646
  3. Signed miss = 9.00 − (9.646) = -0.646
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.646| = 0.646

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55335, race ID 1337 (538 database).