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2002 Governor · HI

Ward Research · fieldwork ended 2002-10-21 (15 days before the election) · 750 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 44%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.01% · Republican 51.56%

R+4.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 44 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.014 − 51.558 = -4.544
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (-4.544) = 0.544
  4. Absolute miss = |0.544| = 0.544

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54659, race ID 1390 (538 database).