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2002 Governor · FL

McLaughlin & Associates · fieldwork ended 2002-10-16 (20 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 49%

R+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.16% · Republican 56.01%

R+12.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 49 = -8.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.160 − 56.010 = -12.850
  3. Signed miss = -8.00 − (-12.850) = 4.850
  4. Absolute miss = |4.850| = 4.850

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54642, race ID 1388 (538 database).