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2000 Governor · NH

American Research Group · fieldwork ended 2000-11-01 (6 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 44%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.74% · Republican 43.76%

D+5.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 44 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.736 − 43.759 = 4.977
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (4.977) = -5.977
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.977| = 5.977

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.0 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54503, race ID 1425 (538 database).