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1998 Governor · NM

Research & Polling Inc. · fieldwork ended 1998-10-18 (16 days before the election) · 916 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 39% · Republican 49%

R+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.47% · Republican 54.53%

R+9.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39 − 49 = -10.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.469 − 54.531 = -9.062
  3. Signed miss = -10.00 − (-9.062) = -0.938
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.938| = 0.938

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54358, race ID 1454 (538 database).