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1998 Governor · HI

Ward Research · fieldwork ended 1998-10-22 (12 days before the election) · 480 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 36% · Republican 44%

R+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.10% · Republican 48.82%

D+1.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 36 − 44 = -8.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.105 − 48.816 = 1.289
  3. Signed miss = -8.00 − (1.289) = -9.289
  4. Absolute miss = |-9.289| = 9.289

The poll overstated the Republican by 9.3 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54266, race ID 1441 (538 database).