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2010 Governor · GA

InsiderAdvantage · fieldwork ended 2010-10-18 (15 days before the election) · 507 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 39.7% · Republican 45.2%

R+5.5

The certified result

Democrat 42.97% · Republican 53.02%

R+10.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39.7 − 45.2 = -5.50
  2. Actual margin = 42.971 − 53.018 = -10.047
  3. Signed miss = -5.50 − (-10.047) = 4.547
  4. Absolute miss = |4.547| = 4.547

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 52965, race ID 1282 (538 database).