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2016 President · NY

McLaughlin & Associates · fieldwork ended 2016-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 38%

D+11.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.72% · Republican 32.73%

D+24.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 38 = 11.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.722 − 32.729 = 23.993
  3. Signed miss = 11.00 − (23.993) = -12.994
  4. Absolute miss = |-12.994| = 12.994

The poll overstated the Republican by 13.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 52424, race ID 636 (538 database).