2010 House · TN-8
Tarrance Group · fieldwork ended 2010-10-18 (15 days before the election) · 300 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)
The poll said
Democrat 35% · Republican 50%
R+15.0
The certified result
Democrat 38.80% · Republican 58.99%
R+20.2
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 35 − 50 = -15.00
- Actual margin = 38.804 − 58.994 = -20.190
- Signed miss = -15.00 − (-20.190) = 5.190
- Absolute miss = |5.190| = 5.190
The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 52105, race ID 4826 (538 database).