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2010 House · NM-2

Tarrance Group · fieldwork ended 2010-10-19 (14 days before the election) · 350 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 50%

R+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.60% · Republican 55.40%

R+10.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 50 = -9.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.597 − 55.403 = -10.806
  3. Signed miss = -9.00 − (-10.806) = 1.806
  4. Absolute miss = |1.806| = 1.806

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51955, race ID 4718 (538 database).