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2010 Governor · NM

Research & Polling Inc. · fieldwork ended 2010-10-27 (6 days before the election) · 1,003 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 53%

R+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.55% · Republican 53.28%

R+6.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 53 = -10.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.550 − 53.285 = -6.735
  3. Signed miss = -10.00 − (-6.735) = -3.264
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.264| = 3.264

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51945, race ID 1289 (538 database).