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2010 House · MS-4

Tarrance Group · fieldwork ended 2010-10-18 (15 days before the election) · 300 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 43%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.83% · Republican 51.93%

R+5.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 43 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.829 − 51.928 = -5.099
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (-5.099) = 3.099
  4. Absolute miss = |3.099| = 3.099

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51895, race ID 4685 (538 database).