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2010 House · AR-2

OnMessage Inc. · fieldwork ended 2010-10-13 (20 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 52%

R+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 38.27% · Republican 57.90%

R+19.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 52 = -12.00
  2. Actual margin = 38.267 − 57.904 = -19.637
  3. Signed miss = -12.00 − (-19.637) = 7.637
  4. Absolute miss = |7.637| = 7.637

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51655, race ID 4478 (538 database).