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2012 House · FL-22

Impact Research · fieldwork ended 2012-10-20 (17 days before the election) · 501 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 37%

D+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.63% · Republican 45.37%

D+9.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 37 = 10.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.627 − 45.373 = 9.254
  3. Signed miss = 10.00 − (9.254) = 0.746
  4. Absolute miss = |0.746| = 0.746

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51294, race ID 5004 (538 database).