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2017 House · GA-6

InsiderAdvantage · fieldwork ended 2017-06-14 (6 days before the election) · 537 respondents · IVR/Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 49.7% · Republican 49.4%

D+0.3

The certified result

Democrat 48.22% · Republican 51.78%

R+3.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49.7 − 49.4 = 0.30
  2. Actual margin = 48.217 − 51.783 = -3.566
  3. Signed miss = 0.30 − (-3.566) = 3.866
  4. Absolute miss = |3.866| = 3.866

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.9 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 50564, race ID 1762 (538 database).