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2016 President · NV

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2016-10-27 (12 days before the election) · 339 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 45.39% · Republican 42.15%

D+3.2

The certified result

Democrat 47.92% · Republican 45.50%

D+2.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.39 − 42.15 = 3.24
  2. Actual margin = 47.918 − 45.501 = 2.417
  3. Signed miss = 3.24 − (2.417) = 0.823
  4. Absolute miss = |0.823| = 0.823

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48788, race ID 635 (538 database).