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2016 President · KS

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2016-10-27 (12 days before the election) · 361 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 38.22% · Republican 54.45%

R+16.2

The certified result

Democrat 36.05% · Republican 56.66%

R+20.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 38.22 − 54.45 = -16.23
  2. Actual margin = 36.052 − 56.655 = -20.603
  3. Signed miss = -16.23 − (-20.603) = 4.372
  4. Absolute miss = |4.372| = 4.372

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48784, race ID 618 (538 database).