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2016 President · HI

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2016-10-30 (9 days before the election) · 102 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 47.31% · Republican 28.75%

D+18.6

The certified result

Democrat 62.22% · Republican 30.04%

D+32.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.31 − 28.75 = 18.56
  2. Actual margin = 62.221 − 30.039 = 32.182
  3. Signed miss = 18.56 − (32.182) = -13.623
  4. Absolute miss = |-13.623| = 13.623

The poll overstated the Republican by 13.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48781, race ID 613 (538 database).