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2016 President · WI

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2016-10-30 (9 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 45.92% · Republican 39.99%

D+5.9

The certified result

Democrat 46.45% · Republican 47.22%

R+0.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.92 − 39.99 = 5.93
  2. Actual margin = 46.454 − 47.218 = -0.764
  3. Signed miss = 5.93 − (-0.764) = 6.694
  4. Absolute miss = |6.694| = 6.694

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.7 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48717, race ID 650 (538 database).