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2016 President · WV

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2016-10-30 (9 days before the election) · 180 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 34.22% · Republican 58.04%

R+23.8

The certified result

Democrat 26.43% · Republican 68.50%

R+42.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 34.22 − 58.04 = -23.82
  2. Actual margin = 26.426 − 68.499 = -42.073
  3. Signed miss = -23.82 − (-42.073) = 18.253
  4. Absolute miss = |18.253| = 18.253

The poll overstated the Democrat by 18.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48716, race ID 651 (538 database).