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2016 President · WA

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2016-10-30 (9 days before the election) · 562 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 46.72% · Republican 38.48%

D+8.2

The certified result

Democrat 52.54% · Republican 36.83%

D+15.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.72 − 38.48 = 8.24
  2. Actual margin = 52.539 − 36.833 = 15.706
  3. Signed miss = 8.24 − (15.706) = -7.466
  4. Absolute miss = |-7.466| = 7.466

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48715, race ID 649 (538 database).