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2016 President · TN

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2016-10-30 (9 days before the election) · 538 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 36.33% · Republican 49.76%

R+13.4

The certified result

Democrat 34.72% · Republican 60.72%

R+26.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 36.33 − 49.76 = -13.43
  2. Actual margin = 34.716 − 60.722 = -26.006
  3. Signed miss = -13.43 − (-26.006) = 12.576
  4. Absolute miss = |12.576| = 12.576

The poll overstated the Democrat by 12.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48714, race ID 644 (538 database).