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2016 President · SC

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2016-10-30 (9 days before the election) · 251 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 43.61% · Republican 49.43%

R+5.8

The certified result

Democrat 40.67% · Republican 54.94%

R+14.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43.61 − 49.43 = -5.82
  2. Actual margin = 40.673 − 54.939 = -14.266
  3. Signed miss = -5.82 − (-14.266) = 8.446
  4. Absolute miss = |8.446| = 8.446

The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48713, race ID 642 (538 database).