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2016 President · NE

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2016-10-30 (9 days before the election) · 216 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 31.62% · Republican 53.27%

R+21.7

The certified result

Democrat 33.70% · Republican 58.75%

R+25.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 31.62 − 53.27 = -21.65
  2. Actual margin = 33.699 − 58.747 = -25.048
  3. Signed miss = -21.65 − (-25.048) = 3.399
  4. Absolute miss = |3.399| = 3.399

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48711, race ID 631 (538 database).