Skip to content

2016 President · MO

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2016-10-30 (9 days before the election) · 401 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 39.73% · Republican 48.01%

R+8.3

The certified result

Democrat 38.13% · Republican 56.77%

R+18.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39.73 − 48.01 = -8.28
  2. Actual margin = 38.135 − 56.772 = -18.637
  3. Signed miss = -8.28 − (-18.637) = 10.357
  4. Absolute miss = |10.357| = 10.357

The poll overstated the Democrat by 10.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48710, race ID 626 (538 database).