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2016 President · KY

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2016-10-30 (9 days before the election) · 391 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 37.64% · Republican 58.29%

R+20.6

The certified result

Democrat 32.68% · Republican 62.52%

R+29.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 37.64 − 58.29 = -20.65
  2. Actual margin = 32.682 − 62.520 = -29.838
  3. Signed miss = -20.65 − (-29.838) = 9.187
  4. Absolute miss = |9.187| = 9.187

The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48706, race ID 619 (538 database).