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2016 President · VA

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2016-11-03 (5 days before the election) · 534 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 45.9% · Republican 41.11%

D+4.8

The certified result

Democrat 49.73% · Republican 44.41%

D+5.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.9 − 41.11 = 4.79
  2. Actual margin = 49.728 − 44.407 = 5.321
  3. Signed miss = 4.79 − (5.321) = -0.531
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.531| = 0.531

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48703, race ID 647 (538 database).