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2016 President · TX

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2016-11-03 (5 days before the election) · 646 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 39.3% · Republican 48.75%

R+9.5

The certified result

Democrat 43.23% · Republican 52.23%

R+9.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39.3 − 48.75 = -9.45
  2. Actual margin = 43.235 − 52.235 = -9.000
  3. Signed miss = -9.45 − (-9.000) = -0.451
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.451| = 0.451

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48702, race ID 645 (538 database).