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2016 President · NY

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2016-11-03 (5 days before the election) · 552 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 51.49% · Republican 33%

D+18.5

The certified result

Democrat 56.72% · Republican 32.73%

D+24.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51.49 − 33 = 18.49
  2. Actual margin = 56.722 − 32.729 = 23.993
  3. Signed miss = 18.49 − (23.993) = -5.504
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.504| = 5.504

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48698, race ID 636 (538 database).